Wed 22 Oct 2025 - Risk lies at the heart of most actuarial work and actuaries like to model risk. However, risk, uncertainty, and deep uncertainty are fundamentally distinct; not all uncertainty is quantifiable. Deep uncertainty arises in nonlinear systems, driven by complexity, unknowability, and interdependent dynamic variables. In such environments, shocks can accelerate through feedback loops, amplify across domains, and cascade systemically. As extreme and unprecedented events become more frequent, the limitations of legacy risk models are increasingly exposed.
Please join us in this discussion, organised by the Risk Management Lifelong Learning Committee, where Roger Spitz will examine the nature of deep uncertainty and systemic risk, and discuss adaptive and anticipatory frameworks that can help rethink how we model, manage, and respond to systemic disruption in an unpredictable world.
, Journal of Operational Risk (Risk.Net)
Chair
Mike is Founder Director of an advisory firm which focuses on climate change, finance and systemic risk 鈥� in both its societal and financial guises. Working across the finance sector, regulators and policymakers in the UK and beyond, he seeks to accelerate activity that supports the transition.
Having authored 鈥淎 Transition Mind Does Climate Due Diligence鈥� earlier this year, he is now diving into the psychology of risk and opportunity. His work with the US military (鈥淎ssured Provisioning鈥� in the context of energy) has brought him into contact with the Cognicist Theory of Capitalism. When he understands it enough, he has already promised colleagues to run a webinar where he can present it. Neural annealing, reward hacking and episodic memory will all soon be part of the actuarial lexicon, he asserts.
Roger Spitz is a leading authority on systemic disruption and strategic foresight. Before founding the Disruptive Futures Institute in San Francisco, he served as Global Head of Technology M&A at BNP Paribas, advising on over $25 billion in transactions. As President of Techistential, Spitz advises CEOs, boards, and investors on strategy under uncertainty and sustainable value creation.
A renowned expert on AI, Spitz coined the term 鈥楾echistentialism鈥� and publishes extensively on the future of AI and decision-making. Spitz is an expert advisor to the World Economic Forum, serves on multiple boards, and is a bestselling author of five books, including the award-winning Disrupt With Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World. Spitz鈥檚 frameworks are adopted globally.
His recent paper challenges the legacy risk models: "The future of risk and insurability in the era of systemic disruption, unpredictability and artificial intelligence" Journal of Operational Risk (Risk.Net).
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